How do the most experienced brokers in each discipline feel about the Greater Phoenix commercial real estate market and where it’s going? Arizona State University’s real estate school spring broker sentiment index is out and provides a great pulse. The report addresses key issues such as absorption, lending rates, job growth, policy, and relevant predictions. These slides and the article below tell a great story.
Check out the link to the slides here.
Three noteworthy points I agree with are:
–The market is moving up. The return to the office, and experiences continue.
–Job growth in Metro Phoenix will increase. This is a great region to live, work, and play. And we have a global superpower, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), in our backyard.
–AI will affect the commercial real estate market in a positive way. I remain positive that AI will help businesses become more productive, not empty out buildings.
The full article is below, and as always, I’ve highlighted the key parts for an even shorter read. Would love to hear your thoughts, or if you need help with any of our real estate.
Broker Sentiment Index Spring 2026 – W.P. Carey Center for Real Estate and Finance
April 17, 2026
Tom Johnston
Arizona State University’s W. P. Carey Center for Real Estate and Finance has conducted a semi-annual survey of brokers since October 2013 to generate insights and growth sentiment forecasts for Arizona’s commercial real estate market across seven asset classes (industrial, land, capital markets, office, outpatient medical, multifamily, and retail).
The purpose of the survey is to track broker perceptions about the Phoenix real estate market now and over the next six months. The April 2026 survey was sent to approximately 1000 commercial agents and brokers and 125 responded anonymously (12.5% response rate). More than 85% of the respondents had over 10 years of brokerage experience. After the survey, a forum was held to discuss results and collect forward-looking insights. Forum participants included commercial brokers from 13 different brokerages representing each of the seven asset classes covered by the survey. We sincerely appreciate the time of those who completed the survey and attended the forum.
April 2026 Brokers Survey
The latest survey shows
- Broker sentiment remains resilient. In October 2025, the W. P. Carey Center for Real Estate and Finance introduced the Metro Phoenix Commercial Broker Sentiment Index (CBSI). The index ranges from 0 to 100, with 50 indicating neutral sentiment. The April 2026 reading came in at 57.9, down slightly from October, but still indicating a positive outlook. For more information, please see the presentation slides linked below.
- Confidence in the market remains strong. Overall, 67% of brokers said market conditions are improving. In the Capital Markets, Industrial, Office, Outpatient Medical, and Retail surveys, the largest shares of respondents said the market is moving up. Multifamily responses were more mixed, but the largest share, 43%, was still positive. For Land, the largest share said conditions are steady. While brokers are generally positive about the direction of vacancies and rents, expectations differ across and within asset classes.
- Interest rates weigh on economic outlook. Last October, brokers had been optimistic that interest rates on commercial loans would decline. Instead, rates have remained mostly flat, and expectation for the next six months are now more cautious, especially given rising geopolitical risk.
- Federal uncertainty is a greater concern. Three-quarters of brokers report that federal government uncertainty is hindering local real estate, up from about two-thirds in October. Locally, 49% say economic development programs are aligned with real estate markets, while 37% say they’re not aligned yet but are improving.
April 2026 Brokers Forum Discussion Highlights
- Middle EBrokers expect the ongoing conflict in the ast to drive volatility in global shipping, which could raise input costs for the Industrial and Retail sectors. They also expect heightened geopolitical risk to put upward pressure on borrowing costs.
- Liquidity continues to flow into real estate as investors are looking for returns, although institutional providers largely remain on the sidelines. At the same time, distressed assets are becoming more common as underperforming borrowers find it harder to roll over loans.
- Construction costs and infrastructure provision remain major constraints on development. Brokers expect tight markets for labor and materials to continue for at least the next four to five years, driven in part by ongoing TSMC and Intel expansions.
- Office and Multifamily are increasingly split between top-tier and lower-tier properties, with higher-quality buildings seeing lower vacancy rates and relatively stronger rents. Industrial remains healthy overall, though recent activity has been concentrated in a relatively small number of large leases. Retail and Outpatient Medical appear to be performing more consistently strong across subcategories.
For additional information, here are links to the full report, presentation slides, and longitudinal results. If you would like to be included in the broker survey distribution list or attend the next Brokers Forum, please contact us! Thank you for your time and participation. We greatly appreciate it and look forward to hearing from you.